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How It Works

A plain-English guide to every formula, score, and signal used in the Bargain Crypto dashboard. No finance degree required.

Bargain Score (CAM)Price ProjectionsDerivatives & SentimentTokenomicsData Sources

The Big Picture

This dashboard is built around one idea: the best time to buy an asset is when everyone else is scared of it. The Contrarian Accumulation Model (CAM) scores each coin from 0 to 100 based on how far it is from its all-time high, how fearful the market is, how the derivatives market is positioned, and how healthy the coin's supply structure is.

A high score does not mean "buy now and get rich." It means the asset is statistically cheap relative to its own history, and conditions are aligned with historical accumulation zones. It is a research tool, not financial advice.

Nothing on this dashboard is financial advice. All projections are statistical models based on historical patterns. Past cycles do not guarantee future performance. Always do your own research.

The Bargain Score is a single number from 0 to 100 that summarises how attractive a coin looks from a contrarian perspective. It is built from five sub-scores, each measuring a different aspect of value and sentiment.

1. Historical Value Distress (HVD) — weight 30%

Measures how far the price has fallen from its all-time high, how close it is to its all-time low, and how long it has been since the ATH. A coin down 90% from its ATH, near its ATL, with the ATH years ago scores very high here.

DD = 1 - (Price / ATH) Proximity_to_ATL = 1 - ((Price - ATL) / (ATH - ATL)) Time_Decay = min(1, DaysSinceATH / (365 * 4)) HVD = 0.40 * DD + 0.40 * Proximity_to_ATL + 0.20 * Time_Decay
  • DD = Drawdown from ATH (0 = at ATH, 1 = at zero)
  • Proximity_to_ATL = How close to the ATL (1 = at ATL, 0 = at ATH)
  • Time_Decay = How stale the ATH is — normalised over 4 years (older ATH = more distressed)
  • Higher HVD = more distressed = more interesting to a contrarian

2. Sentiment Extreme Score (SES) — weight 20%

Measures how fearful the market is. Extreme fear is historically a good time to accumulate. This combines the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, the RSI indicator, and the funding rate from derivatives markets.

FearScore = 1 - (FearGreedIndex / 100) RSI_score = max(0, (30 - RSI) / 30) ← only counts if RSI < 30 FundingScore = 0.8 if funding < 0 else 0.5 - (funding * 100 * 0.4) SES = 0.5 * FearScore + 0.3 * RSI_score + 0.2 * FundingScore
  • Fear & Greed Index: 0 = Extreme Fear (bullish signal), 100 = Extreme Greed (bearish signal)
  • RSI below 30 = oversold (historically a buy signal)
  • Negative funding rate = traders are paying to be short = bearish crowd = contrarian buy signal

3. Positioning Imbalance Score (PIS) — weight 20%

Looks at whether traders are crowded on one side of the market. When most traders are short, a short squeeze becomes likely. When most traders are long, the market is vulnerable to a flush.

If Long/Short Ratio < 0.9 → PIS = 0.8 (crowded shorts = bullish) If Long/Short Ratio > 2.0 → PIS = 0.2 (crowded longs = bearish) Otherwise → PIS = 0.5 (neutral)
  • Long/Short Ratio from OKX perpetual futures (where available)
  • A ratio below 0.9 means more shorts than longs — a potential short squeeze setup

4. On-Chain Resilience Score (ORS) — weight 15%

Measures how structurally resilient the asset is, based on three market signals: how actively traded it is, how far it has recovered from its worst point, and how long it has existed.

Liquidity_Health = clamp(Vol_MCap_Ratio / 0.10, 0, 1) Survival_Score = clamp((Price - ATL) / (ATH - ATL), 0, 1) Longevity = min(1, DaysSinceATL / (365 * 5)) ORS = 0.35 * Liquidity_Health + 0.35 * Survival_Score + 0.30 * Longevity
  • Liquidity Health: how much 24h volume relative to market cap (normalised to 10%)
  • Survival Score: how far the coin has recovered from its ATL toward its ATH
  • Longevity: how long the asset has existed, normalised over 5 years

5. Tokenomic Quality Score (TQS) — weight 15%

Measures how much of the total supply is already in circulation. A coin with 95% of its supply already out has very little inflation risk. A coin with only 20% circulating could be heavily diluted by future unlocks.

TQS = Circulating Supply / Max Supply (If no max supply → TQS = 1.0, treated as fully diluted)
  • TQS close to 1.0 = low inflation risk (good)
  • TQS close to 0.0 = high inflation risk, many tokens yet to be released (bad)

Composite Score (CAS)

CAS = 0.30 * HVD + 0.20 * SES + 0.20 * PIS + 0.15 * ORS + 0.15 * TQS Liquidity Gate: if (Volume / Market Cap) < 1% → cap CAS at 60 Regime Boost: if Fear & Greed < 30 AND Drawdown > 50% → CAS * 1.15 Regime Penalty: if Fear & Greed > 75 → CAS * 0.85 Bargain Score = CAS * 100

Accumulation Tiers

80–100 / High Conviction
Strong contrarian setup across multiple signals
60–79 / Gradual Accumulate
Good setup but not all signals aligned
40–59 / Watch
Some interest but wait for better entry
0–39 / Avoid
Overvalued, overbought, or too risky

Bargain Crypto - Contrarian Accumulation Model. Not financial advice.

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